Muhammad Imdad Ullah

Currently working as Assistant Professor of Statistics in Ghazi University, Dera Ghazi Khan. Completed my Ph.D. in Statistics from the Department of Statistics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan. l like Applied Statistics, Mathematics, and Statistical Computing. Statistical and Mathematical software used is SAS, STATA, Python, GRETL, EVIEWS, R, SPSS, VBA in MS-Excel. Like to use type-setting LaTeX for composing Articles, thesis, etc.

P-value Definition, Interpretation, Introduction, Significance

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In this post, we will discuss the P-value definition, interpretation, introduction, and some related examples.

P-value Definition

The P-value also known as the observed level of significance or exact level of significance or the exact probability of committing a type-I error (probability of rejecting $H_0$, when it is true), helps to determine the significance of results from the hypothesis. The P-value is the probability of obtaining the observed sample results or a more extreme result when the null hypothesis (a statement about population) is true.

In technical words, one can define the P-value as the lowest level of significance at which a null hypothesis can be rejected. If the P-value is very small or less than the threshold value (chosen level of significance), then the observed data is considered inconsistent with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true, and thus null hypothesis must be rejected while the alternative hypothesis should be accepted. A P-value is a number between 0 and 1 in literature.

Usual P-value Interpretation

  • A small P-value (<0.05) indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis
  • A large P-value (>0.05) indicates weak evidence against the null hypothesis.
  • p-value very close to the cutoff (say 0.05) is considered to be marginal.

Let the P-value of a certain test statistic is 0.002 then it means that the probability of committing a type-I error (making a wrong decision) is about 0.2 percent, which is only about 2 in 1,000. For a given sample size, as | t | (or any test statistic) increases the P-value decreases, so one can reject the null hypothesis with increasing confidence.

p value and significance level

Fixing the significance level ($\alpha$, i.e. type-I error) equal to the p-value of a test statistic then there is no conflict between the two values, in other words, it is better to give up fixing up (significance level) arbitrary at some level of significance such as (5%, 10%, etc.) and simply choose the P-value of the test statistic. For example, if the p-value of the test statistic is about 0.145 then one can reject the null hypothesis at this exact significance level as nothing wrong with taking a chance of being wrong 14.5% of the time someone rejects the null hypothesis.

P-value addresses only one question: how likely are your data, assuming a true null hypothesis? It does not measure support for the alternative hypothesis.

Most authors refer to a P-value<0.05 as statistically significant and a P-value<0.001 as highly statistically significant (less than one in a thousand chance of being wrong).

P-value Definition, P-value Interpretation

The P-value interpretation is usually incorrect as it is usually interpreted as the probability of making a mistake by rejecting a true null hypothesis (a Type-I error). The P-value cannot be the error rate because:

The P-value is calculated based on the assumption that the null hypothesis is true and that the difference in the sample is by random chance. Consequently, a p-value cannot tell about the probability that the null hypothesis is true or false because it is 100% true from the perspective of the calculations.

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The Degrees of Freedom

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The degrees of freedom (df) or several degrees of freedom refers to the number of observations in a sample minus the number of (population) parameters being estimated from the sample data. All this means that the degrees of freedom are a function of both sample size and the number of independent variables. In other words, it is the number of independent observations out of a total of ($n$) observations.

Degrees of Freedom

In statistics, the degrees of freedom are considered as the number of values in a study that is free to vary. Degree of freedom example in real life; if you have to take ten different courses to graduate, and only ten different courses are offered, then you have nine degrees of freedom. Nine semesters you will be able to choose which class to take; the tenth semester, there will only be one class left to take – there is no choice, if you want to graduate, this is the concept of the degrees of freedom (df) in statistics.

Let a random sample of size $n$ be taken from a population with an unknown mean $\overline{X}$. The sum of the deviations from their means is always equal to zero i.e.$\sum_{i=1}^n (X_i-\overline{X})=0$. This requires a constraint on each deviation $X_i-\overline{X}$ used when calculating the variance.

\[S^2 =\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n (X_i-\overline{X})^2 }{n-1}\]

This constraint (restriction) implies that $n-1$ deviations completely determine the nth deviation. The $n$ deviations (and also the sum of their squares and the variance in the $S^2$ of the sample) therefore $n-1$ degrees of freedom.

A common way to think of df is the number of independent pieces of information available to estimate another piece of information. More concretely, the number of degrees of freedom is the number of independent observations in a sample of data that are available to estimate a parameter of the population from which that sample is drawn. For example, if we have two observations, when calculating the mean we have two independent observations; however, when calculating the variance, we have only one independent observation, since the two observations are equally distant from the mean.

Degrees of Freedom

Single sample: For $n$ observation one parameter (mean) needs to be estimated, which leaves $n-1$ degree of freedom for estimating variability (dispersion).

Two samples: There are a total of $n_1+n_2$ observations ($n_1$ for group1 and $n_2$ for group2) and two means need to be estimated, which leaves $n_1+n_2-2$ degree of freedom for estimating variability.

Regression with p predictors: There are $n$ observations with $p+1$ parameters that need to be estimated (regression coefficient for each predictor and the intercept). This leaves $n-p-1$ degrees of freedom of error, which accounts for the error degrees of freedom in the ANOVA table.

Several commonly encountered statistical distributions (Student’s t, Chi-Squared, F) have parameters that are commonly referred to as degrees of freedom. This terminology simply reflects that in many applications where these distributions occur, the parameter corresponds to the degrees of freedom of an underlying random vector. If $X_i; i=1,2,\cdots, n$ are independent normal $(\mu, \sigma^2)$ random variables, the statistic (formula) is $\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n (X_i-\overline{X})^2}{\sigma^2}$, follows a chi-squared distribution with $n-1$ degree of freedom. Here, the degree of freedom arises from the residual sum of squares in the numerator and in turn the $n-1$ degree of freedom of the underlying residual vector $X_i-\overline{X}$.

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Binary Logistic Regression Minitab Tutorial

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Binary Logistic Regression is used to perform logistic regression on a binary response (dependent) variable (a variable only that has two possible values, such as the presence or absence of a particular disease, this kind of variable is known as a dichotomous variable i.e. binary in nature).

Binary Logistic Regression

Binary Logistic Regression can classify observations into one of two categories. These classifications can give fewer classification errors than discriminant analysis for some cases.

The default model contains the variables that you enter in Continuous Predictors and Categorical Predictors. You can also add interaction and/or polynomial terms by using the tools available in the model sub-dialog box.

Minitab stores the last model that you fit for each response variable. These stored models can be used to quickly generate predictions, contour plots, surface plots, overlaid contour plots, factorial plots, and optimized responses.

Minitab Tutorial for Binary Logistic Regression

To perform a Binary Logistic Regression Analysis in Minitab, follow the steps given below. It is assumed that you have already launched the Minitab software.

Step 1:  Choose Stat > Regression > Binary Logistic Regression > Fit Binary Logistic Model.

Binary Logistic Regression Minitab Tutorial

Step 2:  Do one of the following:

If your data is in raw or frequency form, follow these steps:

Binary Logistic Regression 2
  1. Choose Response in binary response/frequency format, from the combo box on top
  2. In the Response text box, enter the column that contains the response variable.
  3. In the Frequency text box, enter the optional column that contains the count or frequency variable.

If you have summarized data, then follow these steps:

Binary Logistic Regression 3
  1. Choose Response in event/trial format, from the combo box on top of the dialog box.
  2. In the Number of events, enter the column that contains the number of times the event occurred in your sample at each combination of the predictor values.
  3. In the Number of trials, enter the column that contains the corresponding number of trials.

Step 4:  In Continuous predictors, enter the columns that contain continuous predictors. In Categorical predictors, enter the columns that contain categorical predictors. You can add interactions and other higher-order terms to the model.

Step 5:  If you like, use one or more of the dialog box options, then click OK.

Minitab Binary Logistic Regression Options

The following are options available in the main dialog box of Minitab Binary Logistic Regression:

  • The response in binary response/frequency format: Choose if the response data has been entered as a column that contains 2 distinct values i.e. as a dichotomous variable.
  • Response: Enter the column that contains the response values.
  • Response event: Choose which event of interest the results of the analysis will describe.
  • Frequency (optional): If the data are in two columns i.e. one column that contains the response values and the other column that contains their frequencies then enter the column that contains the frequencies.
  • Response in event/trial format: Choose if the response data are two columns – one column that contains the number of successes or events of interest and one column that contains the number of trials.
  • Event name: Enter a name for the event in the data.
  • Number of events: Enter the column that contains the number of events.
  • Number of trials: Enter the column that contains the number of nonevents.
  • Continuous predictors: Select the continuous variables that explain changes in the response. The predictor is also called the X variable.
  • Categorical predictors: Select the categorical classifications or group assignments, such as the type of raw material, that explain changes in the response. The predictor is also called the X variable.

Step 6: To store diagnostic measures and characteristics of the estimated equation click the Storage… button.

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