Probability is a fundamental concept in statistics used to quantify uncertainty. One of the key concepts in probability is the Complement of an event. The complement of an event provides a different perspective on computing the probabilities, that is, it is used to determine the likelihood of an event not occurring. Let us explore how the complement of an event is used for the computation of probability.
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What is the Complement of an Event?
The complement of an event $E$ is denoted by $E’$, encompasses all outcomes in the sample space that are not part of event $E$. In simple terms, if event $E$ represents a specific outcome or set of outcomes, its complement represents everything else that could occur.
For example, let the event $E$ be rolling a 4 on a six-sided die; the complement of event $E$ is ($E’$) rolling a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6.
Note that event $E$ and its complement $E’$ cover the entire sample space of the die roll.
Complement Rule: Calculating Probabilities
A pivotal property of complementary events is that the sum of their probabilities is 1 (or 100%). This is because either the event happens or it does not happen, as there are no other probabilities. It can be described as
$$P(E) + P(E’) = 1$$
This leads to the complement rule, which states that
$$P(E’)= 1- P(E)$$
It is useful when computing the probability of an event not occurring.
Examples (Finding the Complement of an Event)
Suppose the probability that today is a rainy day is 0.3. The probability of it not raining today is $$1-0.3 = 0.7$$
Similarly, the probability of rolling a 2 on a fair die is $P(E) = \frac{1}{6}$. the probability of not rolling a 2 is $P(E’)=1-\frac{1}{6} = \frac{5}{6}$.
Why use the Complement Rule?
Sometimes, calculating the probability of the complement is easier than calculating the probability of the event itself. For example,
Question: What is the probability of getting at least one head in three coin tosses?
Solution: Instead of listing all possible favourable outcomes, one can easily use the complement rule. That is,
Complement Event: Getting no heads (all tails)
Probability of all tails = $\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3 = \frac{1}{8}$. Therefore, the probability of at least one head is
P(At least one head) = $1 – \frac{1}{8} = \frac{7}{8}$
This approach is quicker than counting all possible cases; that is, one can avoid enumerating all the favourable outcomes.
Properties of Complementary Events
- Mutually Exclusive: An event and its complement cannot occur together (simultaneously)
- Collectively Exhaustive: An event and its complement encompass all possible outcomes
- Probability Sum: The probabilities of an event and its complement add up to 1.
Understanding complements in probability can make complex problems much simpler and easier.
Practical Applications
Understanding complements is invaluable in various fields:
- Quality Control: Determining the probability of defects in manufacturing
- Everyday Decisions: Estimating probabilities in daily life, such as the chance of missing a bus or the likelihood of rain.
- Game Theory: Calculating chances of winning or losing scenarios
- Risk Assessment: Evaluating the likelihood of adverse events not occurring
More Examples (Complement of an Event)
- In a standard 52-card deck, what is the probability of not drawing a heart card?
$P(Not\,\,Heart) = 1 – P(Heart) = 1 – \frac{13}{52} = \frac{39}{52}$ - If the probability of passing an examination is 0.85, what is the probability of failing it?
$P(Fail) = 1 – P(Pass) = 1 – 0.85 = 0.15$ - If the probability that a flight will be delayed is 0.13, then the probability that it will not be delayed will be $1 – 0.13 = 0.87$
- If $k$ is the event of drawing a king card from a well-shuffled 52-card deck, then the event $K’$ is the event that a king is not drawn, so $K’$ will contain 48 possible outcomes.